Electrical Mobility, A Saviour For Stagflation?

February 1, 2022 3:26 pm

Electrical mobility glinting EV revolution is transitioning for sustainable yet clean mobility environment in India, encompassing the initiative for an inclining shift towards innovative design trends and technology development, into an indigenous future. Will this take Indian industry ahead from the post Covid Catastrophe?

The last two years have been challenging for the automobile industry due to global pandemic. The Indian Automobile Industry on the road to recovery continues to face new challenges. While on one hand, we are seeing a revival in commercial and passenger vehicle demand, on the other hand, the transition of automobiles towards electric mobility is getting inevitable. 

Auto industry is visualising to make India a global leader in electric mobility. The increased spend on road infrastructure, voluntary scrappage policy; R&D and PLI are the encouraging trends for the automotive sector. With the vision of Atma Nirbhar Bharat, industry is bound to provide opportunities for investment and employment in the country that will redefine the economy also. The Indian automotive industry including component manufacturing is expected to reach around 18 trillion rupees by 2026. And, India’s electric vehicle market is estimated to be approximately 50,000 crore by 2025, with two- and three-wheelers expected to drive higher electrification of the vehicles. 

Opportunities for the Nextgen EV market 

Ms. Geetha Avula, Senior Technical Manager, Dassault Systemes points out that a lot of technology is available at hand, which the start-ups and OEM companies can make use of to accelerate EV production and then get their vehicles faster into the market. Unlike IC Engines where, probably 100 years of time was utilised to kind of improve on each and every model; that much luxury in terms of time is not available to improve upon the behaviour and performance towards EVs. Hence, in the next 5 to 10 years, there would be rapid changes that every OEM and start-ups might need to adopt to get their vehicles up into the market faster. And the only way they can probably do this is by adopting the digital platform to build their vehicle in a virtual space and simulate it. 

There may be conditions like, a short circuit condition, thermal dynamic condition, yet ideally, it would not be possible to simulate all of this in a real world condition. However, if possible, it would be quite expensive. And, considering the cost aspects, the expertise required is through the digital platform that offers a lot more solutions and technology to understand the behaviour and performance of EVs. 

Furthermore, EMC, EMI compliance is going to be very, very crucial and important. EMI and EMC compliance standards may not be uniform around the world. Electromagnetic interference (EMI) and electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) are both important considerations when working with electronic components. There are acquired chambers for testing the full vehicle, but it’s quite expensive, and to be able to understand the ECM behaviour, simulation techniques are used which could be at a component level subsystem or a full vehicle level. Hence, using the digital solutions available at hand today and using the techniques, the EVs are going to adopt solutions, and they can definitely see value and get the products quickly into the market. 

Upcoming challenges for recycling of batteries and alternatives for lithium metal 

Lithium metal may not be an all time metal and so an alternative in long term has to be traced. Global demand for battery grade lithium might outstrip supply sometime in future.

According to Mr. Preetesh Singh, Manager – CASE, NRI Consulting and Solutions India Pvt. Ltd., there are discussions going on whether there will be sufficient amounts of lithium by 2035 or 2040 or not. But, it is very important to understand the roadmap of next generation batteries. Currently liquid base lithium ion rechargeable batteries are there, which we call lithium ion batteries. 

In the small passenger car, lithium ion batteries are going to sustain at least till 2035-2040. Then after that probably there are some beneficial innovations going to happen and especially in Europe and the United States, R&D organisations are working on semi solid state batteries. So, in solid state batteries, sulphide based oxide or probably the polymer based batteries in European or other markets, around 2030 some level of introduction is going to happen and beyond that, commercial level of mass market is going to be captured around 2035 and that will definitely come to India. 

So, like innovation in other battery types it is definitely required to have sustainable green mobility worldwide as well as India now. So, like alternate battery technology development in the long term, the only option to deal with is in terms of the recyclability challenges. In the Indian market, there are a lot of developments in Europe as well as in other markets, but in India, two, and three years back, only few players were there. And they were collecting the batteries, and supplying the batteries to companies for recycling. Companies like Exigo in Panipat and others in north India, have actually started doing the recycling. So, obviously a framework is needed because of the different battery chemistry. It has started developing in India and actually it is happening. Probably there will be a lot of batteries coming from outside India also. And it is on the horizon to have a very developed recycling industry by 2030 at least at some level of scale in India. 

Manufacturing practises to change for shifting to green alternatives as EV 

Though EV is trending and a lot of groundwork has to be there. Shift to green mobility as electrical vehicles need to combat air pollution with fuel operated vehicles. The lack of charging infrastructure is the main concern, along with branding and retrofitting IC engines and creating hybrid creations. 

According to Mr. Aditya Ganjapure, Vice President, Technology in Green Tiger Mobility Pvt. LtdWhen you convert the existing IC engine vehicle to the hybrid electric vehicles; there are certain parameters which need to be considered while developing the vehicle. For example, a common throttle is needed for both IC engine work as well as EV work. And, there is a motor at the rear wheel which is closer to the silencer so that it should not get heated up with the heat of the silencer. For that a lot of simulations on various software’s like Altair ANSYS etc. is done. With that again the wiring harness is designed. If riding on electric mode, it should not hamper or it should not give the permission to start an IC engine vehicle. So while riding on electric mode, if someone puts on the ignition, it will start and then it will be chaotic and may have an accident kind of situation. 

So, all these things need to be taken into consideration while designing the hybrid on existing IC engine vehicles. But it’s a good way forward for a smoother transition for EVs and again, for developing a pure electric vehicle. For sure, there is the liberty to design vehicles according to all the things, when you make your technical specification requirements. 

So, the amount of range, amount of speed and overall crux is battery. So, whether one should go with NMC chemistry or LFP chemistry (NMC stands for Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt oxide and LFP is Lithium Iron Phosphate). or how much kilowatt hour battery or how much kilowatt motor is needed. And, taking that into consideration, design for electric vehicles can be created. 

Yes, there are some different challenges in both the things but the one thing is good in pure EVs, one can develop vehicles from scratch. So there is liberty and in the case of a hybrid, it’s a little bit complex to build a system on top of the existing IC engine. 

Definitely, the solutions to make the hybrid electric will spring up as a very easy thing. The sunrise industry is stepping up with new product launches. 

Factors influencing transition of consumer purchase behaviour adopting EV 

Mr. Rahul Shonak, Founder, Metalloid Labs., deliberates what will happen, how the consumers will get the low cost EV and still they can get the indigenously made EVs. So, these things actually go hand in hand. Trying to make something local and to develop a technology takes time. 

The manufacturers are working overnight and trying to revolutionise this industry in India by making the local parts, by developing the technology which is not there in the developed nations itself; in the developing market itself. Yes, the sunrise industry is there but there are some challenges. These challenges are related to the consumer side. The price is everything, India is a price sensitive market, and to produce the same vehicle for the right use with the same cost as making ICE; the winner is there in hand and the mass adoption will happen. 

It is just a matter of time that the numbers are going up, the numbers will speak itself once consumers start to understand. This is the real case. EVs can be the mainstream vehicle; it will not be the second vehicle or the alternate vehicle. It will be the main vehicle, it completes all the tasks day in and day out and yes, this is a serious business case for any consumer. 

Summing it up, there will be a hard time when the TCO i.e. the total cost of ownership of the vehicle will start coming down slightly and it will be approaching the comparative level towards the IC engine; be it diesel or CNG or petrol. And once the day comes, people will start to adopt EV in a rapid manner. 

Obviously, if the demand is there and supply is superfluous then definitely costs will come down on the cost curve. Incentivizing by the government to create infrastructures is required of course, because it’s a new venture and battery cell production also impacts the EV market. 

Barriers to the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles in India 

High prices and lack of electric vehicle charging infrastructure seem to be the barriers in adoption of alternative fuel vehicles presently as people are used to the existing ICE vehicle infrastructure feeling safe and comfortable. 

Mr. Sumit Kumar, Co-Founder, GoZero Mobility is of the opinion that lack of charging infrastructure is one of the biggest reasons behind the lower adoption. And also, two wheelers and three wheelers are actually driving the whole transition to electric mobility as of now, because four wheelers are still on the higher end of the price segment. But as a whole India being a price sensitive market from the consumer’s point of view, they actually look for value for money. Range anxiety is always there and the consumer mind is actually full of range anxiety. That’s one of the reasons why people look for charging infrastructure. Naturally, a dedicated charging infrastructure has to be there. 

Emerging trend toward consolidation altering the automobile dealership 

Every single company is working its way toward creating an infrastructure be it two wheeler manufacturer or three wheeler manufacturer, and be it four wheeler manufacturer. So everyone is trying their best to cut down on the cost of creating more infrastructures, and Mr. Sumit says it is an ecosystem. 

Mr. Preetesh too thinks on the same line aligning with the thoughts about consolidation. And now the EV journey, especially in India is driven by start-ups and there are very limited numbers of global automotive OEMs especially in the passenger vehicle segment in two wheelers as well as three wheelers segment. All kinds of EV stories driven by start-ups in India till now are going forward, and we see some level of consolidation starting from 2 and 3 wheelers. By the beginning of financial year 2023, more products will flourish in the market and better quality products in higher range will be available, because global automotive OEMs will have no other option than introducing an electric vehicle even if it takes a profitability hit for them. So by 2023, some products from global automotive OEMs will also be there. That will help in developing the overall supply chain and this will have a good effect for other vehicle segments. 

PLI scheme will boost the market for EV segment. In reference to incentive programs by the government, the PLI scheme will boost the market for EV segment is an encouraging perspective. Mr. Rahul pointed to the fact that though PLI is for the manufacturers, it is not directly for the consumers. But the end result is that everybody wants EVs to be price competitive against IC vehicles. The phase one incentive was underutilised. It went into phase two, in bits and pieces, it’s being used. 

Very recently, Delhi has stopped giving the Fame subsidy for electric four wheelers. Now it’s not there. Approximately 1000 cars have been registered. So, traction is already there in the market. And that’s the objective of the government that they just want the traction. They just want people to experience the EV so that they know what kind of benefit they’ll drive away from the vehicle. 

The overall objective is to give some incentive to the consumers to understand the technology and understand the product. And once people understand it, it’s a win-win for everyone. So the PLI scheme helps in other ways, and ultimately, once the manufacturing prices come down with the help of PLI, it eventually helps the consumers to adopt the technology and the product with lesser prices. So in a way it’s helpful in the larger picture. 

With a bird eye view, it’s eventually helping the consumers as predicted that 2023 is the time when people will be forced to make the parts here, even though in bits and pieces. It is much more economical to bring it from outside than making it here, but eventually, talking about volumes, making it here is the way forward. Making in India is the way forward and the sooner it will be economically viable, and yes, consumers will have their upper hand on the pricing side. 

Mr. Preetesh is of the opinion that with the PLI scheme, ultimately manufacturing price is going to be lesser, and then that is eventually going to be passed to the consumer and consumer is going to get the benefit. Till now, in the Fame scheme there were 18 components listed, but there was no real level of localization, there was no mechanism to check whether localization is happening or not. Importing everything even without value addition, and declare actually that it is being done in India, and was counted as local. So, Fame was not able to do the real level of localization that is how schemes such as PLI were required. And, 50 to 60 percent vehicle cost generally is from the batteries, and now, only 15 percent localization is happening in manufacturing. Even the government is saying under the PLI scheme we aim to have at least 60 percent localization and again that is a very big challenge. But yes, at least if not 60 percent, then definitely there is going to be some real level of localization. And ultimately, even if India is not able to match with the global prices, it is going to be a huge advantage and vehicle prices are going to go down like anything. 

Substantiating the point, Ms. Geetha mentions, when it comes to localization of cells or so, how to make use of the digital solutions. There is a need to understand these systems better and then to be looked at for solution offerings. Be it either any chemistry or battery chemistry, it becomes very important to understand the behaviour for different types of cells like cylindrical prismatic or pack, especially for the India conditions – such as various terrains and temperature conditions. So, it is very important to understand the behaviour of these cells at different temperatures, and watch the best for the country, given the varied conditions and constraints. The battery management system needs to be in place to be able to provide better range and performance. 

According to Preetesh, the engineering industry is going to play a significant role in the traditional automotive industry, in future. Also, the global OEMs have either their own engineering centres in India or collaborate with like Indian engineering centres. And there are two types of engineering companies. The purely engineering service providers and companies like Dassault innovators. So in EV also, this ecosystem is already there, as all of these companies are working on a kind of solution, building services around electrification and kind of gearing upwards. So, within five to 10 years, this engineering industry is also going to help a lot with the development of localization and the cost reduction of electric vehicles. 

Build quality for EVs as people have the general impression that ICE than EV is sturdier. Is any work being done to assure the customers about the sturdiness of the vehicle! 

Sturdiness of vehicle 

Mr. Rahul explains, the basic structure of the vehicle constitutes the sturdiness, if we call it the sturdiness. The other part is the technology where transmission comes into picture. Take the example of ICE vehicles, the clutch, the brakes and everything else comes as a system. So it is a system and the core is the skeleton part of the vehicle, not changed for 2 wheelers. The core of the vehicle will be the same as ICE, there is no specific need to design special parts. Take for example the chassis of a two wheeler. In an electric two wheeler the chassis remains same; the overall load is little bit reduced. There are possibilities of reducing the weight rather than increasing the weight. So, the basic core of the vehicle remains the same. Hence there is no possibility that it needs to be specially designed. Definitely for designing the vehicles, there is no specific element that needs to cater for electric vehicles. Yes, the basic structure demands that eventually the vehicle is going to ply on the road. So all the road conditions have to be met, all the analysis and the test has to be done, but eventually there is no specific requirement of designing a part which caters to EV. 

Packaging is one aspect where it is a take, make or break for the OEM plan. Tesla is a world renowned company because it packages the battery so well that the vehicle is protected all time and consumers are the passengers to be protected all time even in the case of a mishap or crash. Packaging is one aspect where OEMs are playing or giving attention but feel no specific need for designing a specific EV. 

Manufacturing opportunities opening up especially for various segments 

Mr. Rahul is of the view that there are technologies being used for the Indian automotive industry. It is 30-35 years old. When Maruti came it started with a Big Bang. But the places like Delhi, Gurgaon and those areas which were practically non manufacturing areas became the hub of automotive manufacturing, also due to the automotive manufacturers like Suzuki Honda’s and all the OEM’s who started and domestically Bajaj and hero Honda started manufacturing. So the first part of the technology already exists. 

There will be parts regardless of making an electric cycle such as electric mopeds, electric scooters, electric motorcycles or electric 4 wheelers or even EVs. Die casting parts will be there. These are the core manufacturing processes. This is not going anywhere. The focus right now is what manufacturers are doing. Are they struggling also because of the high operational or material input costs? 

A set of components which came into existence because of EV, say power electronic parts right now to make it locally but the input cost is high. There is no check on imports, so eventually there will be a break even when things will start falling in place as the price is coming down and this is where the focus should be. And it is being addressed in PLIs and some way or the other government is encouraging startups to enter the electric mobility segment. Though it is happening at a slow pace but absolutely yes, it is starting up. 

Challenges from setup to startup EV Manufacturing and recycling of batteries 

EV Story is driven by start-ups in India. So the first question is will they try to avoid adoption of new technologies. In a country like India, probably it’s far away and there is a need to study the China market firstly, outside the European and US and then kind of come up with some trends like that. But now the situation is that it is happening and it will happen. So challenges in terms of global organisations or the companies already established are in terms of their market prioritisation strategy. To shift in phase wise manner to a new technology like EV, the organisations are going to face a lot of challenges because ultimately they have to change. Certainly, the challenges we are facing in the EV segment presently and the trends we are seeing will pave the way how the industry is going to be in the next 5 to 10 years. Looking at the emerging trends and wide acceptance of electrical mobility, many industry experts predict that the EV revolution will be a renaissance for the Indian automobile industry amidst pandemic calamity.